by: Morgan Housel
At current rate, job market won't recover till 2024

July’s dismal job numbers have become standard, with few jobs added and employers hesitant to hire. If the numbers continue along the same trend they’ve followed this year, unemployment may not drop below 6 percent until 2024. Photo Credit:AP

If you prefer your news in small bites, the most important numbers from July’s employment report are these: 163,000 jobs were added last month, bringing the average number of jobs created in the past six months to 131,000. At that rate, unemployment won’t drop below 6 percent until 2024. …

July’s employment report, released Friday, included the collection of figures that have become uncomfortably standard in recent years. A high percentage of the jobs created last month were in temporary or low-pay positions. State and local education employment declined for the 31st time in 42 months. The employment-population ratio — the percentage of working-age citizens with a job — declined to one of the lowest levels in 30 years. The most complete measure of unemployment that includes those who have given up looking for work and those employed part time involuntarily ticked up to 15 percent, about double where it stood five years ago. …

It’s likely that today’s employment decline will exceed the Great Depression in duration. Survey after survey shows the reason businesses remain reluctant to hire is simple: Economic growth is too slow. With consumers still shedding debt piled on during last decade’s bubble, it may stay that way for a while.


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